Thursday, December 24, 2009

Morgan Stanley: Mobile Internet to overtake desktop in five years

The mobile web is experiencing faster growth than its desktop predecessor ever did according to a new study by investment firm Morgan Stanley, which forecasts more consumers will access the Internet by mobile devices than PCs within five years.

Morgan Stanley's 424-page Mobile Internet Report contends the mobile web cycle is just beginning, with material wealth creation and destruction expected to surpass previous computing cycles, galvanized by the growth and convergence of 3G adoption, social networking, video content, VoIP and advanced hardware (including but not limited to smartphones, tablets, ereaders and wireless home appliances). Another significant catalyst: Opportunities in emerging markets.

It's notable that, after years in the backwaters of global mobile development, American companies (led by the likes of Apple, Facebook, and Google) are becoming mobile Internet innovation pacesetters. Wwhile Apple currently leads in mobile innovation and impact, long-term winners will be determined by the depth of individual application ecosystems, the user experience and pricing.

The report firmly believed Facebook has the potential to serve as a communications platform/engine of one-to-one, one-to-some and one-to-many (and visa versa) for the mobile Internet. Facebook has already become a primary way for millions of people to stay connected and Facebook's lead is likely to be extended as more consumers use increasingly powerful mobile devices (with photo/video + high-speed access) and the communications options on Facebook (like voice/video chat and other services) continue to rise.

Additional platform companies that appear to be well positioned for the rapid changes related to the evolution of the mobile Internet include Tencent and Skype, companies that appear to be at the most risk from rapid changes related to the evolution of the mobile Internet include Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony.

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